Study: Climate change could halve grazing lands by 2100 - Africa's Drought Crisis Deepens as Climate Change Devastates Pastoral Communities

A severe drought crisis is deepening across Africa, threatening millions of people and livestock. Somalia declared a drought emergency in late 2022, but the impact now stretches far wider. From Kenya to the Horn of Africa, communities relying on grazing lands are facing extreme hardship as climate change worsens conditions.

In Kenya alone, around two million people are struggling with food insecurity after poor harvests linked to drought. Pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa are also under pressure, with frequent dry spells pushing temperatures beyond sustainable levels for grazing. The situation is expected to worsen—experts warn that Africa's suitable grasslands could shrink by 16% to 65% by 2100, with pasturelands declining by 36% to 50%.

The effects extend beyond East Africa. Sudan has over 21 million people affected by acute food insecurity, while the Democratic Republic of Congo faces a crisis involving 25 million. Zambia, Malawi, and Namibia are also severely impacted, with Malawi's hunger crisis worsened by El Niño. These figures, drawn from late 2025 and early 2026 reports, highlight how climate shocks and conflict are intertwined.

Up to 1.6 billion animals—including cattle, sheep, and goats—could suffer as grazing lands disappear. Many regions are already at the upper limit of heat tolerance for sustainable livestock farming, leaving herders with few options.

The drought's toll on Africa's pastoral communities is growing, with millions at risk of hunger and livelihoods under threat. Without intervention, shrinking grasslands and rising temperatures will push even more people and animals into crisis. Current data shows no sign of relief, as climate patterns continue to disrupt food security across the continent.