Philippines Launches Impact-Based Forecasts to Tackle Extreme Weather Risks

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will introduce a new impact-based forecast (IBF) for severe winds in July. This system aims to improve how weather risks are communicated to the public and local authorities. It will help communities prepare better for extreme weather events. The new IBF assesses the risk of hazards by considering a city or municipality’s exposure and vulnerability. It categorises potential damage into four levels of severity. Unlike traditional hazard-based forecasts, the IBF focuses on what the weather will do rather than what it will be.

It provides early warnings, identifying where weather-related hazards may occur three to five days in advance. The forecast also suggests appropriate actions to mitigate risks. PAGASA is currently piloting four types of IBFs: for severe winds, rain-induced landslides, storm surges, and flooding in select cities.

The system is designed to enable local government units and communities to make risk-informed decisions before a cyclone strikes. It will be released alongside PAGASA’s regular weather forecasts and advisories. After rolling out the Severe Winds IBF, the agency plans to expand the Storm Surge IBF nationwide. The IBF projects the severity of damage extreme weather may cause in specific areas. It complements existing forecasts and is expected to enhance disaster preparedness. PAGASA’s initiative seeks to empower local actors with clearer, actionable information.