Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million in a Decade, Says Former Skeptic

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Invest, now believes Bitcoin could hit $1 million within a decade. This marks a sharp turnaround from his earlier scepticism, when he once called such a prediction absurd. His latest analysis centres on Bitcoin's growing role in the global store-of-value market, where it increasingly competes with gold.

Hougan's shift in perspective comes as Bitcoin's market cap has surged from around $140 billion in 2018 to over $1.5 trillion by early 2026. During the same period, its share of the store-of-value market—dominated by gold's $15-18 trillion valuation—has climbed from under 2% to roughly 8-10%. He now argues that if Bitcoin captures about half of the total store-of-value market, currently estimated at $38 trillion, a $1 million price becomes feasible.

Bitcoin's recent struggles, according to Hougan, stem from large holders selling ahead of the four-year market cycle. He also notes that the latest 'crypto winter' likely began in January 2025, not October as many assumed. Looking ahead, he expects a slower but steadier rally, driven more by institutional investors than speculative trading.

Bitwise Invest, managing around $15 billion in client assets, operates one of the top five Bitcoin spot ETFs. Hougan's projections include the store-of-value market expanding to $121 trillion over the next decade. If correct, he suggests current Bitcoin prices could represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

Hougan's revised outlook reflects Bitcoin's evolving position alongside gold as a store of value. With institutional interest growing, the path to $1 million may depend on sustained demand and broader market expansion. His analysis highlights how shifting perceptions and market dynamics could reshape Bitcoin's future trajectory.