Study: Heat from Climate Change Threatens Coffee Harvests - and Drives Up Prices - Climate Change Scorches Global Coffee Production with Record Heatwaves

Coffee production is grappling with escalating threats from excessive heat, a consequence of climate change. Latest data reveals that key growing regions are now experiencing significantly more days of scorching temperatures each year, pushing temperatures beyond what coffee plants can endure. This shift is reducing yields, driving up prices, and disproportionately impacting small-scale farmers.

Between 2021 and 2025, the world's top coffee producers witnessed a sharp uptick in extreme heat. Brazil, the leading producer, encountered up to 70 additional days of dangerously high temperatures annually. Across the five largest coffee-growing nations, the average increase reached 57 extra days of damaging heat per year. When expanded to 25 major producers, the figure still stood at 47 extra days of harmful heat.

Coffee plants start to struggle once temperatures climb above 30°C (86°F). Prolonged exposure diminishes both the quantity and quality of beans. The result has been smaller harvests, tighter supplies, and higher costs for consumers worldwide.

Small-scale farmers, who cultivate much of the world's coffee, are particularly susceptible. In 2021, they received a mere 0.36 percent of the funding needed to adapt to these changes. While major producers like Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia have implemented measures—such as shade-growing, improved irrigation, and heat-resistant varieties—global monitoring of these efforts remains incomplete.

One proven method to alleviate heat stress involves planting coffee under taller trees. The shade helps lower temperatures around the crops, safeguarding them from the worst effects of rising heat.

The rise in extreme heat is already reshaping coffee production, with fewer beans and higher prices becoming more prevalent. Without broader adoption of adaptation strategies, small farmers and global supplies will continue to face strain. The chasm between required funding and actual support leaves many producers battling to keep pace with the changing climate.