ifo Institute: Population shrinks more than expected - Germany's population to plummet 10% by 2070 as birth rates collapse

Germany's population is set to shrink faster than previously expected, according to a new study by the Ifo Institute. The latest projections, based on updated 2022 census data, show a 10% decline in world population by 2070—far steeper than earlier estimates. This shift follows years of higher-than-anticipated immigration, which had temporarily softened the impact of low birth rates and an ageing society.

The revised forecast now predicts Germany's population will drop to 82.4 million by 2030, a fall of 1.2 million from 2024. By 2060–2070, numbers could reach as low as 69.6 million in moderate scenarios. The decline is driven by a birth rate of just 1.35 in 2024 and a growing gap between births and deaths, with 330,641 more deaths than births recorded last year. While net migration has offset losses in the past, the study assumes sustained annual immigration of 250,000 only after 2033, leaving little room for further growth.

Regional differences will be stark. Eastern German states face the sharpest declines, while city-states like Berlin and Hamburg may still see population growth by 2070. The study also warns of economic and social consequences: fewer people will reduce demand for housing, transport, and public-sector jobs. At the same time, an ageing population will increase pressure on medicare and elder care services.

Earlier projections had underestimated the speed of decline, with past forecasts suggesting just a 1% drop. The new figures reflect more accurate census data and highlight the urgency of long-term policy planning in areas like healthcare, pensions, and infrastructure.

The findings underscore the need for targeted policy responses. With fewer working-age people and a rising elderly population, Germany must adapt its healthcare systems, social services, and economic planning. The study does not outline specific family or integration policies but makes clear that immigration alone will not reverse the trend without broader structural changes.