The International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook serves as its definitive report on the "state of play" in global energy. The latest edition delivered three key messages: First, climate change poses an existential threat to the economy. Second, we must accelerate the transition to renewables. And third, with few new oil fields now being developed, the daily train from Norway to Italy will no longer be carrying crude oil within the next decade—or, at the latest, the one after that.

For climate advocates, this is welcome news: the market is taking the risks seriously. Developing new oil fields is expensive, and the capital expenditures weigh heavily on corporate balance sheets. If existing fields cannot be exploited due to climate policies, they become stranded assets—akin to bad loans that could push a company to the brink. Indeed, the report's scenarios project that global oil demand will decline by 6 percent by mid-century under current climate commitments. If the world continues on its current trajectory, however, demand would rise by 11 percent—and with it, emissions.

Yet with companies now hesitant to invest in new fields, supply may soon struggle to meet even current demand. According to the IEA, even substantial investments cannot prevent oil production from plummeting by half by 2050. Forward-thinking policymakers are taking note, prioritizing the expansion of public transit, incentivizing electric mobility, and phasing out internal combustion engines. Populists, by contrast, invoke "technology neutrality," push synthetic fuels, and dole out fuel subsidies. While it is certainly right to prevent oil companies from shamelessly profiting off the crisis, that is merely the day-to-day work of regulators. Politicians who refuse to acknowledge that fossil-fueled mobility is coming to an end belong in the lobbyist sector. The role of responsible governance is to prepare society for the future.