Nel ASA's steep decline mirrors hydrogen sector's broader struggles in 2026

Nel ASA's market value has fallen sharply over the past two years. The Norwegian hydrogen technology company now sits at a market capitalisation of roughly 4.05 to 4.1 billion NOK, equivalent to about 366 million EUR as of January 25, 2026. Its share price has dropped from over 7 NOK to around 2.28 NOK, reflecting broader scepticism in the stock market today. The company's struggles come amid a wider slowdown in hydrogen investment. Despite record global energy transition spending of $2.3 trillion in 2025, clean hydrogen projects received just $7.3 billion. High costs and weak demand have dampened growth, pushing green hydrogen cost estimates higher and leaving infrastructure development lagging behind expectations. Nel ASA's own performance has mirrored these challenges. Contract revenues fell by 17% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Analysts now rate the stock as Neutral to Underperform, with an average price target of 2.20–2.28 NOK—though forecasts range from as low as 1.20 NOK to a high of 4.20 NOK. The company's near-term prospects hinge on its Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline technology, set for launch in the first half of 2026. Backed by EU funding, this innovation could prove critical as Nel ASA continues to report losses and declining orders. Investors await the Q4 2025 results, due at the end of February 2026, for further clarity. Yet, there are glimmers of long-term support. Nine North Sea coastal states, including Norway, recently signed the Hamburg Declaration, committing to expand offshore renewable hydrogen production. The agreement targets up to 100 gigawatts of cross-border offshore wind capacity by 2050, specifically for industrial-scale green hydrogen. Such initiatives may eventually strengthen demand for hydrogen technology providers like Nel ASA, though immediate stock market sentiment remains cautious. Nel ASA's stock has faced persistent downward pressure, trading near 2.28 NOK after a steep decline from mid-2024 levels. The company's recovery depends on the success of its upcoming technology launch and broader improvements in hydrogen infrastructure. While long-term policy moves like the Hamburg Declaration offer potential, analysts currently maintain a bearish outlook on the stock.