Scientists Warn of Strong El Niño by 2026, Risking New Heat Records

Scientists are warning of a likely El Niño event before the end of 2026. The U.S. climate agency NOAA puts the probability at 62 percent, with signs pointing to an unusually strong occurrence. If confirmed, this could push global temperatures to new highs after 2024’s record heat. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that disrupts ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. It appears irregularly, roughly every four years, and alters weather worldwide. The phenomenon begins when trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastward toward South America.

Normally, the temperature gap between the eastern and western Pacific sits around ten degrees Celsius. But during El Niño, this difference shrinks as the ocean warms dramatically off Chile, Peru, and Colombia. The last major event peaked between November 2023 and January 2024, ranking as the fifth-strongest on record. The name 'El Niño' traces back to 17th-century Peruvian fishermen. They noticed unusual weather around Christmas and linked it to the term, meaning 'the boy' in Spanish. Today, climate change is making its effects more severe, intensifying heatwaves and flash floods. The German Weather Service has flagged clear signals of an impending El Niño. Experts suggest this year’s event could be stronger than usual, raising concerns about further temperature spikes.

A 2026 El Niño would likely break global heat records, following 2024’s unprecedented temperatures. The phenomenon’s strengthened impact, combined with climate change, increases risks of extreme weather. Authorities are monitoring developments as the Pacific warms in the coming months.